Yale University
New Haven, CT · private nonprofit · tier B
Your profile
80% interval on the probability, given everything we can observe about you.
Where the truth would sit depending on how your essays, recommendations and the reader's impression actually land. This is a different quantity from the interval above — not error in our estimate, but the part of the decision that is structurally invisible. It is wider, and it does not shrink with better data on our side.
Marginal effects
Percentage points of admission probability, with an 80% interval on each. Effects whose interval spans zero are reported as indistinguishable from zero, because they are.
The sample this was fit on
No individual-level admissions data exists for Yale University, or for any school other than Harvard. These coefficients are Harvard's shape (Doc 415-1 Table B.7.2 Model 4, N=150,587, Classes of 2014-2019), re-scaled by Yale University's own Common Data Set C7 statement on 5 factor(s), with prior standard errors inflated 1.2x for transport distance. They are a prior, not an estimate. What IS measured for this school: its published admit rate, its enrolled score distribution, and its year-to-year volatility.
| anchor fit | acceptable — 3 published moments, worst residual 0.0375 |
| moments used | admit_rate, sat_p25, sat_p75 |
| cycles of admit-rate history | 12 |
| year-to-year volatility (log-odds) | 0.124 |
| transport distance from Harvard | 1.16× |
What Yale University says it weighs
Common Data Set Section C7, 2022 — the school's own words, parsed and validated. This shifts the prior on coefficient magnitude; it never overrides data.
| rigor of secondary school record | very important |
| class rank | very important |
| academic gpa | very important |
| application essay | very important |
| recommendations | very important |
| extracurricular activities | very important |
| talent ability | very important |
| character personal qualities | very important |
| standardized test scores | considered |
| interview | considered |
| first generation | considered |
| alumni relation | considered |
| geographical residence | considered |
| state residency | considered |
| racial ethnic status | considered |
| volunteer work | considered |
| work experience | considered |
| religious affiliation commitment | not considered |
| level of applicant interest | not considered |
Admit rate by cycle
| year | admit rate |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 6.8% |
| 2017 | 7.3% |
| 2018 | 7.1% |
| 2019 | 6.6% |
| 2020 | 7.2% |
| 2021 | 5.7% |
| 2022 | 5.3% |
| 2023 | 5.1% |
| 2024 | 4.6% |
| 2025 | 5.2% |
No safety / target / reach label is given for this school, or any school. Those words imply a certainty this model does not have.