Augustana University
Sioux Falls, SD · private nonprofit · tier B
Your profile
80% interval on the probability, given everything we can observe about you.
Where the truth would sit depending on how your essays, recommendations and the reader's impression actually land. This is a different quantity from the interval above — not error in our estimate, but the part of the decision that is structurally invisible. It is wider, and it does not shrink with better data on our side.
Marginal effects
Percentage points of admission probability, with an 80% interval on each. Effects whose interval spans zero are reported as indistinguishable from zero, because they are.
The sample this was fit on
No individual-level admissions data exists for Augustana University, or for any school other than Harvard. These coefficients are Harvard's shape (Doc 415-1 Table B.7.2 Model 4, N=150,587, Classes of 2014-2019), re-scaled by Augustana University's own Common Data Set C7 statement on 5 factor(s), with prior standard errors inflated 2.2x for transport distance. They are a prior, not an estimate. What IS measured for this school: its published admit rate, its enrolled score distribution, and its year-to-year volatility.
| anchor fit | acceptable — 3 published moments, worst residual 0.0227 |
| moments used | admit_rate, sat_p25, sat_p75 |
| cycles of admit-rate history | 10 |
| year-to-year volatility (log-odds) | 0.258 |
| transport distance from Harvard | 2.20× |
What Augustana University says it weighs
Common Data Set Section C7, 2023 — the school's own words, parsed and validated. This shifts the prior on coefficient magnitude; it never overrides data.
| academic gpa | very important |
| rigor of secondary school record | important |
| standardized test scores | important |
| class rank | considered |
| application essay | considered |
| recommendations | considered |
| interview | considered |
| extracurricular activities | considered |
| character personal qualities | considered |
| alumni relation | considered |
| volunteer work | considered |
| work experience | considered |
| level of applicant interest | considered |
| talent ability | not considered |
| first generation | not considered |
| geographical residence | not considered |
| state residency | not considered |
| religious affiliation commitment | not considered |
| racial ethnic status | not considered |
Admit rate by cycle
| year | admit rate |
|---|---|
| 2014 | 61.3% |
| 2015 | 65.1% |
| 2016 | 69.1% |
| 2017 | 67.8% |
| 2018 | 59.9% |
| 2019 | 66.9% |
| 2020 | 66.6% |
| 2021 | 71.8% |
| 2022 | 66.7% |
| 2023 | 57.9% |
No safety / target / reach label is given for this school, or any school. Those words imply a certainty this model does not have.